An unordinary war

An unordinary war

Western economic sanctions: an act of warfare?

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2 min read

In response of the lightning invasion of Ukraine by the Kremlin, European states reacted with equal speed. No sooner had the troops entered Ukraine than the parliament imposed precipitous economic sanctions against Russia and its 1.6 trillion dollar economy.

The advent of a new type of war: Russia takes a beating

Such decisions are unprecedented and show that despite the Europeans' reluctancy to use hard power against Vladimir Putin, they do not intend to let him peacefully invade an entire democracy-oriented country such as Ukraine. However, this instant immiseration of a monster economy raises attention all over the world, and puts the conflict in the center of the international scene. For instance, China will undoubtedly recalculate the costs of a war over Taiwan, since the case of its Russian neighbor illustrates the best the risks China would incur if it invaded its little brother.

Taiwan's democracy is "a treasure" to be protected, Raphaël Glucksmann, who is leading a European Parliament delegation to Taipei, said on Thursday, promising to continue to support the island as its relations with China continue to strain.

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Despite numerous economic sanctions, affecting over 50 countries other than Russia, and up to 10000 firms; causing the rouble to fall by 28% this year, and resulting in a 90% drop of Russian share prices in offshore trading : the effect is disappointing. Vladimir does not give in to the complaints of a Russian population in difficulty because of these sanctions. On the contrary, he retaliates by threatening to cut off the distribution of Russian gas to Western countries, a resource over which Russia has almost a monopoly, and is even thinking about slowly shifting towards autarky. Hence, the West has no other choice than meeting his response with even more damaging measures. Considering its ability to stymie tech services and oil exports (from which Russia benefits a lot), this economic war would end in favor of the West. On the other hand, Russia can also count on China to block its supply chains, therefore inflicting huge economic consequences on the West: Regardless the outcome, neither side will come out unscathed. By multiplying sanctions, the West risks pushing countries to delink from its financial system and Russia is already paying its decision with the paralysis of its economy.

Overall, sanctions seem to be an inefficient solution against the imminence of one of the most serious humanitarian crisis the West has experienced considering the poor results it has given, but the use of hard power against Russia will inevitably lead to a total War, according to its primary definition.

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